Agri-Food Resilience: Climate & Biodiversity at the Core of Value Chains

A recent report by Foresight Transitions, commissioned by the European Climate Foundation, highlights a major vulnerability in the EU: nearly half of its imports of maize, rice, wheat, cocoa, coffee, and soy come from countries at high risk from climate change and biodiversity loss.

Wheat, maize, and cocoa are at greatest risk, coming from regions where biodiversity is already severely degraded. Cocoa is a systemic warning sign: 96.5% of EU cocoa imports originate from climate-unprepared nations, with 77% of them showing low-to-medium biodiversity integrity. This “chocolate crisis” puts €50 billion of European industry at stake.

Key implications for agri-food businesses:

• Price spikes & shortages

• Decline in product quality

• Yield instability

• Disrupted supply chains—impacting competitiveness and security

Why climate and biodiversity are inseparable:

• Biodiversity loss weakens resilience to droughts, pests, and disease.

• Climate extremes hit yield stability and supply reliability.

Business consequences:

• Cost and supply volatility

• Regulatory pressure rising (EU Green Taxonomy, Deforestation Regulation)

• Consumer & partner demand for verified sustainability

Action levers:

• Fund resilience in producer countries, support agroecology

• Map climate–biodiversity risks using predictive databases

• Strengthen traceability and compliance with new regulations

The systemic intertwined risks require proactive, precise action. For agri-food industries, being reactive is no longer enough: measure, act, anticipate—that's the new operational, financial and brand imperative.If you'd like help securing your supply chain resilience, let's connect.